In mid-June, as cases of coronavirus began to surge once again, Pew Research published a poll showing how attitudes towards the pandemic had shifted. The differences between political parties were especially stark: just 23% of Democrats, but 61% of Republicans, believed that the worst was already behind us; 77% of Democrats, and only 45% of Republicans, were worried about unknowingly spreading the coronavirus. Most notably, the poll found that partisanship was the single biggest driver of attitudes towards the pandemic—dwarfing other dividing lines such as race, gender, geography, or age:

So why the partisan polarization? Many Republicans have called for the same or similar public health measures as their Democratic counterparts—Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stated that “Wearing simple face coverings is not about protecting ourselves, it is about protecting everyone we encounter,” on the Senate floor, and GOP governors in states such as Arkansas, West Virginia, and Alabama have issued statewide mask mandates.
But, in many ways, the Republican Party is the party of Trump—several of his early critics were defeated or retired from the party, and Republican primaries (such as the recent Senate runoff in Alabama) have become a test of who is more loyal to the president. And in much the same way, the Democratic Party has aligned itself against Trump: the drawn-out presidential primary was less a contest of grand ideas and more a test of who, regardless of their particular brand of liberalism, could defeat Trump in 2020.
What does this mean? It’s a departure from both the leadership that Americans have come to expect from the White House, and the public reaction to such statements or orders. When Trump criticizes mask-wearing, or states that schools must reopen, he turns the issue from public health into partisanship—and, as above, a partisan gulf opens between the two groups. Over the course of the pandemic, as Trump has called masks a “double-edged sword” and said “I’m not going to be doing it” [wearing a mask], in contrast to the statements from Democratic leadership that a federal mask mandate is “long overdue”, an almost 30-point gap has opened between Democrats and Republicans on the issue of mask-wearing.
School reopening has followed a similar trajectory. Trump and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos have spoken strongly in favor of in-person education resuming this fall—in Arizona, Trump said that “Schools should be opened. Kids want to go to school. You’re losing a lot of lives by keeping things closed,” and DeVos stated in a hearing that “Kids need to be in school… we can’t not allow that or not be intent on that happening,” with DeVos even threatening to cut federal funding from schools which stay closed. Several of his allies in Congress, such as members of the conservative Freedom Caucus, have followed his lead: Representatives Andy Harris (R-MD) and Morgan Griffith (R-VA) have claimed, counter to CDC guidelines and new studies out of South Korea, that “it’s safe for children to go back to school,” and “the risk is extremely low that anything will happen to them.” But other Republicans have resisted.

Proposed school-reopening plans as of Thursday, July 30th.
- ‘Planned to re-open’ indicates that the governor/state leadership have stated that schools will be open, in some capacity, come fall
- ‘Some open, some online’ indicates that current restrictions, combined with opening plans, mean that some districts will be resuming online-only
- ‘Guidelines released, opening unclear’ indicates that state government have released guidelines on re-opening, but there is no state order yet/most districts have not yet released plans
- ‘No guidelines yet’ indicates that there are not (widely available) state guidelines yet on how/when to reopen school districts
Partisanship is an indicator of whether schools are currently slated to reopen, but also notable is which states have broken ranks. The Republican governors of Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, Mississippi, Maryland, and New Hampshire have largely left their decisions to local school districts, giving them the options of continuing online if cases are high in their area, citing flexibility and local autonomy as reasons for their decision. And Hawaii, Nevada, Illinois, and Rhode Island, all Democratic-governed states, have committed to reopening.
Hawaii has the lowest case count of any state in the US. But coronavirus is surging in most of the continental US, including many Southern states whose governors have stated that schools will reopen in just a few weeks. In Florida, where new cases are quickly approaching the levels seen in New York during the early days of the pandemic, Governor DeSantis has announced that public schools will reopen at full capacity, with district-defined social-distancing measures in place. He’s faced backlash from pediatrics associations and teachers’ unions for this move, but has defended it by saying that reopening is critical to the state’s economy.
And in Missouri, Governor Mike Parson has sparked outrage by saying that “These kids have got to get back to school…They’re at the lowest risk possible. And if they do get COVID-19, which they will — and they will when they go to school — they’re not going to the hospitals. They’re not going to have to sit in doctor’s offices. They’re going to go home and they’re going to get over it.” As Missouri approaches 1,000 new cases a day, local and state officials have criticized Parson for his seeming blitheness to the risk of catching the coronavirus, as well as the possibility of children spreading the disease to older or more-at-risk family members.
But this polarization, unlike similar events in the past, may not yet have caught hold with the majority of the public. Recent polling suggests that 42% of voters think that school should not reopen at all—that classes should continue online and via distanced learning, as was the policy for most of the spring—and only barely more think that schools should reopen at all—that group disagrees, 26% to 19%, on whether schools should partially or fully reopen respectively. And parents are especially wary of returning to school—a majority, 54%, said that they would not want their child to attend any in-person classes in the fall.
Reopening schools is thorny business—for any semblance of normality to return, especially for the roughly one-third of working adults with children under 18, many experts agree that they have to. But no one knows quite how it should be done, or whether it can be done safely (and what ‘safely’ even means, in a world of relative risks and percentages). And with a growing partisan split emerging on the issue, it seems unlikely that a consensus will be reached before schools begin to reopen.