Against a once-in-a-century pandemic, Utahns have until June 30th to mail in their ballots for the state’s primary election. There are various Democratic & Republican down-ballot contests across the state (and depending on congressional district), but the most-watched is surely the Republican primary for governor. Four candidates are competing for the nomination in what looks to be a close race, not to mention Utah’s first primary conducted entirely by mail.

So: who are the candidates, and what are their visions of Utah? What does the race look like, and what does the winner face in November?

The Candidates

Spencer Cox/Deidre Henderson

Cox is the current Lieutenant Governor of Utah and has already picked up some notable endorsements, including that of current governor Gary Herbert and more than half of Utah’s mayors. However, his campaign has come to be defined by the coronavirus, as Cox is the head of Utah’s pandemic taskforce, in charge of coordinating the state’s response. He seeks to cast that experience as vital for a governor who will have to lead Utah out of the damages caused by an economic shutdown, not to mention face a possible second wave of infections, saying in a debate that “[Utah] is better off than any other state in the country and the people of Utah know that,” and in a statement to KUER that “Now, more than ever, Utah needs a prepared and proven leader”.

His campaign platform has also changed with the pandemic: while before the onset of the coronavirus, he described one of his most important issues as continuing the growth of Utah’s economy that began after the recession, now he looks to rebuild that economy. Other issues central to his vision of Utah include changing the education system to minimize federal involvement and give local districts/cities more control over their hiring and curriculums.

Beyond that, Cox has largely been seen as the most moderate of the Republican candidates: in a May poll, he won over self-described ‘moderate conservatives’ by double-digits while tying ‘strong conservatives’ with former Utah House Speaker Greg Hughes. That said, he hasn’t fully embraced that view. When asked about it shortly after launching his campaign, he said that “I think sometimes we confuse kindness and moderation…people see somebody who tries to be kind and listen to others and thinks, ‘Oh, well, he must be a moderate.’ I do have some very conservative views…” (such as strong Second Amendment support, opposition to abortion, and lowering taxes)

In essence, Cox is running a fine line between two groups of people who will vote in the primary: the moderate Republicans and even Democratic crossovers on one side, and the strident conservatives on the other. To be seen as too conservative will likely pull that moderate support towards Jon Huntsman Jr.—but if voters think Cox is too moderate, they will lean towards Hughes instead, who has already criticized Cox over his comments towards the president.

Jon Huntsman Jr./Michelle Kaufusi

In contrast, Huntsman has stuck by his moderation despite its costs of strong conservative support. Some of that may be simply because of his political record: as governor of Utah, he supported many of Obama’s policies like the economic stimulus plan, a carbon cap-and-trade bill, and civil unions for same-sex couples, not to mention serving under Obama as ambassador to China. Now, he seeks to return to the governorship with a promise that his experience as ambassador will make Utah competitive not just within the US but on the world stage.

Like Cox, one of Huntsman’s first priorities is revitalizing Utah’s economy, which he sets as a precursor to his “Utah Unlimited” plan, which Huntsman claims will more than double the state’s GDP. This growth, he claims, will be created largely in the fields of biotechnology, defense, and financial services. Other priorities on his list include giving the state and local communities greater control over Utah’s public lands, improving air quality across the state, and giving people access to mental health resources (especially as rates of depression and suicide have skyrocketed in Utah and other Mountain West states).

Will it be enough? For much of 2019, Huntsman led in polling, but sometime around March 2020—when the pandemic made its impact in the US—he lost that lead to Cox. In the most recent poll, he and the Lieutenant Governor are polling within three points of one another, and it seems likely that the race could tip either way. If it does lean towards Huntsman in the end, he may have an unusual constituency to thank: Democrats and more progressive voters.

Since Utah is an overwhelmingly Republican state, many Democrats and independents (such as former state senator Jim Dabakis) are registering as Republicans to have a say in the primary (which is closed to only registered party members). Huntsman leads among that group 42% to 30%, and it may be the votes of the only-temporarily-Republicans that could hand him the nomination.

Greg Hughes/Victor Iverson

While many have described the Republican primary as a “two-person race” [between Cox and Huntsman], the candidate most likely to break into that race is Greg Hughes, former Speaker of Utah’s House of Representatives. In the Republican convention, he beat out Huntsman for second place (and, more importantly, a spot on the primary ballot), and has surged in more recent polls to trailing the two frontrunners by only single digits, the biggest change in polling so far in the race.

Hughes seeks to sell himself and Washington County Commissioner Victor Iverson as the “conservative ticket”, and has tied his fortunes to that of President Donald Trump in the state. Hughes was an early supporter of Trump during the 2016 primary, and has run ads featuring the nickname given to him by the president: “The Original”, as well as attacking Cox for distancing himself from Trump. Hughes is also the only candidate of the four who doesn’t believe in human-caused climate change, and boasts about his opposition to the Affordable Care Act.

Fighting to earn the votes of the most conservative voters also puts Hughes most at odds with the current governor—he gave the state a ‘D’ rating for its response to the pandemic, calling it a “heavy-handed lockdown” and referring to a short-lived effort to track entrances into Utah as “communist-style snitch hotlines”.

It remains to be seen whether Hughes will benefit or suffer from his association with the president. Despite Utah’s heavy Republican lean, Trump is not particularly popular in the state, with recent polls showing Trump leading former vice president Joe Biden by only three points (though Trump’s approval remains higher among registered Republicans).

Thomas Wright/Rob Bishop

If Hughes is the conservative candidate, Wright seeks to portray himself as the outsider. The former chair of the Utah Republican Party and the owner, president, and principal broker of Sotheby’s International Realty, his pitch to voters is that a combination of business and political experience will let him make the best decisions for the state of Utah.

He lists his top priority as reopening the economy and getting Utahns back to work, using vocational schools to retrain unemployed workers and cutting items from the budget when necessary. Wright has also called for development of an efficient mass transit system in order to take cars off the road and improve air quality, as well as policies addressing education, housing, and rural development, which all candidates agree need to be addressed.

Wright’s campaign hasn’t taken off, however, even as ballots are being sent out — he hasn’t gotten above 10% in any primary polls. Though he claims internal polling still shows a path to the nomination, his voters may instead be the kingmakers in the race between Cox, Huntsman, and Hughes, for Wright’s own path is difficult to see so late in the race (barring a drastic change in the state of the primary).

What Comes Next

Whoever wins the Republican primary will face Democrat Chris Peterson, a professor at the University of Utah and former official in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. One of his top priorities is challenging predatory loan companies in the state, as well as expanding access to health care, which he calls a ‘basic human right’. He was chosen at a virtual Democratic convention with more than 88% of the vote.

Peterson acknowledges that his campaign will be a “tough uphill climb” in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Scott Matheson in 1980, which is also the reason many Democrats are switching registrations. The race is rated Safely Republican, meaning many believe the candidate who wins the Republican primary will be Utah’s next governor come November.