The Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump, Obama, Iran, and Nukes… Who Won?

By · Oct 29, 2020 · 5 min read

The Islamic Republic of Iran has always had problems with the West led by the United States over its nuclear ambitions. Iran always considered it to be a sovereign right and a sacred duty to own a deterrence weapon to protect itself from outside aggression. However, In July 2015, Iran reached a landmark agreement over its nuclear capabilities, along with the United States, Germany, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. The agreement was officially called The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. At the time when it first came out, everyone had hoped for it since it appeared to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations, but as US President Donald Trump ascended to power in 2016, there was a lot of speculation over the deal, until he ultimately decided to officially withdraw from the agreement altogether in May 2018. So, what went wrong with the JCPOA?

Circumstances Before Iran Nuclear Deal

Before the agreement, Iran was not letting inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to its nuclear facilities. In addition, Iran was known to be less than 12 months away from obtaining a “Turn-Key” nuclear weapon, meaning that they have mastered many parts of the fuel cycle, the weapon design, and the missile delivery system using their formidable ballistic missiles program. In the Bushehr Reactor, Iran’s only nuclear power plant, Iran had a large stockpile of uranium-235, which is the isotope needed to obtain a nuclear bomb. They also had more than 20,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium to weapons-grade. This number of centrifuges along with this large stockpile of Uranium-235 was said to be enough for 10 atomic bombs according to the Obama Administration. All they needed was to enrich the Uranium, using the centrifuges to the required level to obtain a bomb, which is about 90%.

The Terms of the JCPOA:  Iran Nuclear Deal

There is no evidence of a secret part of the JCPOA, but public information, particularly from BBC states that with the agreement in place, Iran was required to decrease the number of centrifuges by about 25% to 5,060, until 2026. It also agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched Uranium by 98% and limit uranium enrichment to 3.67%. On top of that, it allowed access for inspectors from the IAEA to visit Iran’s nuclear facilities. According to the New York Times,  By the time President Trump took control in January 2016, The IAEA declared that Iran was following the agreement and the nuclear-related sanctions against Iran were lifted, but there were inherent issues with the deal that we will discuss further.

Problems with the Iran Nuclear Deal

President Trump was a critic of the deal even before he took power, considering the deal to be toothless with Iran, saying he will get a much stronger deal that will force Iran to comply with it.

Iran was free to leave the deal in 2026 using a sunset clause which meant they could re-engage their program in 2026 without encountering sanctions. There was a consensus among scientists that Iran would be less than 12 months away from obtaining a nuclear bomb if they followed the terms of the agreement and ended it when scheduled in 2026. This could mean that the Obama administration was just trying to solve the problem for the short term.

One of its biggest problems is that it didn’t allow adequate inspection of Iran’s Nuclear plants.  According to CBS, it would take 24 days to visit the site, in person, after requesting an inspection. These terms were overly-friendly to Iran, allowing them to hide Nuclear activities and materials within those 24 days if needed.  Remote monitoring systems do exist at certain plants like the nuclear facilities at Fordow fuel enrichment plant and the Natanz enrichment facility.  However, sensitive military sites including those that U.S. officials have suspected nuclear weapons to exist can only be visited with permission which may not be granted.

Another issue is that Iran had a formidable Ballistic missile program which includes short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles, in addition to their newly tested inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM)- Shahab-3- which can easily carry a nuclear warhead and reach as far as Europe. The ICBM program was not addressed in the JCPOA and it meant that Iran can move forward with its missile delivery system, and by 2026, they will have everything ready to achieve their final target, a nuclear bomb.

For a while after America’s withdrawal, Iran remained in compliance with the deal (according to the IAEA), although officially withdrawing from the agreement on January 5, 2019. With President Trump’s increasingly critical comments towards the Iranian government, and reinstating the sanctions, Iran announced that it would raise its enrichment percentage of Uranium-235 along with increasing its stockpile of the material itself, both to be above the limits defined by the JCPOA. After that, Iran announced that they will develop more advanced centrifuges to provide quicker enrichment of uranium, meaning they were trying to make up for the time lost when they were complying with the agreement.  However, according to the New York Times, Iran is still willing to return to the agreement and cooperate with the IAEA if the sanctions were lifted.

Also, the deal was not pleasing to American allies in the Middle East such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both these countries, especially Israel believed that this deal would take a lot of pressure off the rogue Iranian government, which the deal was called “A Historical Mistake” by Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. Republicans in addition to the Israelis did not like the deal because it awarded billions of dollars to a rogue regime that cannot be trusted.

Speaking of billions, it is believed that in the 1970s, Iran’s Shah regime made a weapons deal with the United States and paid $400 million for the deal at that time. However, when the Islamic revolution broke out, The US decided not to send any weapons as sanctions were placed on Iran. What happened was that Iran insisted to have that money returned to it as part of the deal and with interest. The Obama administration reportedly agreed to the proposal and made the $400 million payment in cash and shipped it to Iran in a cargo plane. The US also reportedly agreed to make interest payments that mount a total of $1.3 Billion after Iran signed the agreement. The problem here is that the $400 million payment was made to Iran while it was still under sanctions. Why did the U.S. violate its own sanctions to make a deal?  Also, why did we agree to pay interest of over a Billion dollars on sanctioned money?

Since 2016, the IAEA has issued 11 reports certifying that Iran has met its requirements under the deal. The Agency also said it has gained access to all requested sites in 2017. However, the inspections have not included military sites. Statements by Iranian leaders have concerned officials in Washington. “The Americans will take their dream of visiting our military and sensitive sites to their graves… It will never happen,” Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority, said in 2017.

Conclusion

The JCPOA looked like a very good deal initially but after digging deeper, many have found the following problems:

  • The inspection system does not allow visits to sensitive military sites that could harbor nuclear weapons.
  • The U.S. promised to repay $400 million of sanctioned money and billions in interest on top of it.
  • The agreement has a sunset clause allowing Iran to walk away anytime.
  • The agreement does not stop Iran from developing dangerous ballistic missiles.
  • Lastly, it’s not a permanent agreement.

In Addition, America’s two most important allies in the Middle East never agreed to it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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