Trump’s recent impeachment has a lot of people riled up, Democrats and Republicans alike smelling blood in the water. Though with this impeachment looming over his re-election, Trump still has a high approval rating. According to a recent report from Harvard’s Harris poll, a survey that randomly selects 2,000 registered voters, 32% said that they would still vote Republican.
When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President of the United States?” 47% responded that they approved of the job he has done. The poll also states 29% would vote for him again and 10% probably.
Though his approvals are higher than expected, Trump still has a long way to go.
If Trump is not Impeached by the Senate
With Mitch McConnell’s plan to bypass the Democrats in the impeachment process, and with the Senate looking like they will drop the charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, Trump has fairly good odds for another 4 years in office.
The most recent Gallup poll puts Trump at a 45% approval rating. With little to no competition in his way from the Republican party other than his VP Mike Pence (who has yet to declare). It will be a neck and neck race with the leader of the Democratic party Joe Biden, former VP of Obama.
Trump also has $463 million dollars backing his election and Joe only having 21.5 million currently, Trump will be able to afford the best of the best to run his campaign.
Recently announced as well were the states of Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Kansas, and Nevada pulling the Republican primaries. This is due to many reasons but all in Trump’s favor as all these states have been heavily Republican.
It is still too early to tell what the outcome will be since there are many unknowns still. Suprise declarations and dropout, debates, and other political breaking events like the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, it is anyone’s game.
If Trump is Impeached by the Senate
There is also the question, what if the conviction actually happens? The only other two declared candidates so far are Joe Walsh, Former Rep. of Illinois, or Bill Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts. Mike pence would take over presidency and most likely decaler himself for candidacy.
Compared to Trump, the approval rating combined don’t compare with a recent poll from Iowa primaries putting Joe and Bill collectively at 12%. Mike Pence would be the most likely to shoulder the weight of the Republican Party with his approval rating sitting roughly at 42%.
With only two declared competitors to Trump/Pence for the Republicans, and the possibility of full impeachment, this scenario would give the Democrats a large lead and advantage the next few months. The leader among the Democratic party is Joe Biden with a steady 50% approval rating.
I think there’s no question that on paper at least Biden is likely the strongest challenger and that Trump has an uphill battle to get reelected,” said Mark Penn, Director of the Caps/Harris poll, in an article by The Hill.
Not only that but other promising candidates like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and the 12 other candidates officially declared, there is little standing in the way of the Democratic party. If Trump is officially impeached and removed from office it is looking to be a blue election.
